Why Derek Carr is the most important player this weekend. (And Wild Card Picks)

One night, years ago, I was on my way down the Youtube rabbit hole when I came across a playlist of three of four forty-minute sermons. I would have probably scrolled past the videos if not for who the pastor in these messages was; it was (then) Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr. Carr was only about a second-year player at that point but his delivery in these videos was beyond his years. He showed the confidence, charisma, and bravado that I believed every great minister - and quarterback - needed to be especially successful.

And soon, Carr and the Raiders were. The next season, in 2016, Oakland went 12-4 and Carr had an MVP-caliber season in just his third year. The roster was strong with veteran Michael Crabtree and a blooming Amari Cooper at receiver, a dominating offensive line, and a defense that wouldn’t routinely give the game away, anchored by that year’s DPOY, Khalil Mack. But it was clear that Carr was less of a manager and more of a maestro. After two subsequent seasons of improvement to start his career, the Fresno State product threw for nearly 4,000 yards and 28 touchdowns; neither a career-high, even at that point. But he won games.

That year, Carr led seven game-winning drives in the fourth quarter, the most in any one season of his career. This was signs of more to come as, in only his eighth year, Carr ranks in the top 20 all-time in such comebacks ahead of names like Romo, Montana, and even his friend and peer, Aaron Rodgers. However, late in that 2016 season, Carr suffered a broken leg that ended his year and the Raiders promptly lost in the Wild Card round. At the time, I fully expected a ‘Tuck Rule’ game rematch in the AFC Championship game with Oakland and New England (New England would have obviously won again). Nonetheless, Oakland seemed to be on the uptick, boasting their best quarterback at least since Rich Gannon and at most since Ken Stabler.

Since that playoff berth in the wee hours of the Obama administration, the Raiders have been in the news for a lot of things over the last half-decade. A relocation to Las Vegas, an ill-fated nostalgia pack of a coaching hire, a generational receiver signed and lost to cold feet and a hot head, and way too many good players lost to temporary, yet costly, lapses in judgment. Nowhere in there was another playoff berth. But always at the center of it all? Derek Carr.

Carr has carried the burden of answering questions, navigating controversy, as well as everything else that is required of the quarterback of a football team and he has done so rather well. Yet, the Raiders have never quite gotten over that hump of being a true yearly contender to make the playoffs and compete there.

Carr will play his first playoff game tomorrow against the Cincinnati Bengals, in a game between two snake bitten franchises who haven’t won a playoff game since I was a small child. In my opinion, Derek Carr’s career can go one of two ways depending on the outcome of this game.

But before I get to that, a bit of context. During last Sunday night’s game of the year between the Chargers and the Raiders, a game so riddled with storylines both before and after it was played that, though the game was discussed heavily on social media and among my peers, the victor eluded me for hours on Monday morning (I did not watch past halftime), a conversation between I and some friends began about the state of the quarterback in today’s NFL. I was frustrated with the fact that it seems franchises continually put their fans through the ironic ups and downs of consistently mediocre or average quarterback play rather than go in the direction of a player that could potentially be excellent.

My example for this phenomenon has often been Matthew Stafford in his career with the Detroit Lions. I don’t subscribe to the idea that you should hang on to a “franchise quarterback” for twelve years if, after six years, you are barely farther along than when you drafted them. Regardless of the roster, regardless of the circumstances, there is very little precedent to show a franchise quarterback playing for a bad franchise for over a decade because franchise quarterbacks change the franchise almost immediately and at least within the first few years. Stafford is one of the great talents to play the position but, compared to similarly talented prospects who were drafted to similarly inept franchises before and after him having immensely more success either sustainably or in moments, he isn’t that guy.

And, despite my affection for the leader and character that Derek Carr is, I fear he is on a similar track. He is consistent. Every year, you will largely get the same guy. Near or more than 4,000 yards, a good amount of scores, a modest amount of turnovers, and a pretty enough completion percentage and passer rating to contend for a Pro Bowl nod here and there. But, Derek Carr, in year eight, has not touched a playoff football field. And that could be for many reasons. Shaky management, high turnover at the skilled positions, not a ton of job security, and seemingly endless scandal surrounding the organization. However, Russell Wilson just earned a losing season this year for the first time in his ten-year career. Andrew Luck won 11 games his first three years before the Colts roster was close to Super Bowl ready. And Baker Mayfield took the Browns to a playoff win.

Not to mention what Carr’s adversary, Joe Burrow has done for the lowly Bengals in year two.

I’m a fan of Derek Carr. And I believe that at his best, he is a great quarterback and an even better leader. What he, interim coach Rich Bisaccia, and the Raiders have overcome this season to earn a playoff bid is nothing short of miraculous. But Carr has a chance tomorrow to separate himself from the Staffords’ and the Kirk Cousins’ and the Carson Wentzs’. Beat the second-year MVP candidate, win a playoff game for one of the league’s cornerstone franchises. Do what the special ones have done. That is my challenge to you, Derek Carr.

Joe Glorioso - All-Pro Reels

Mark J. Rebilas - USA TODAY Sports

Wild Card Weekend Picks

Raiders @ Bengals

21 - 17 Raiders

I believe the Bengals will regret resting their young stars in Week 18 and this Las Vegas team seems destined for at least one playoff win after all they’ve been through in 2021.

Patriots @ Bills

13 - 17 Bills

This is tough. A very wacky split of divisional games in the regular season combined with unreal weather conditions on the way in Buffalo should cause for a competition of will. Give me the team with the most to prove in a toss up.

Eagles @ Bucs

20 - 30 Bucs

This one will look eerily similar to the Bucs Wild Card matchup against the Eagles rival, Washington last year about midway through the 3rd quarter. I expect this one to be testy up to then and for Brady and the gang (or what’s left of it) to pull away late.

49ers @ Cowboys

28 - 35 Cowboys

In what will be the game of the weekend, Dallas will assure America that this team is different and not destined for the monumental collapses that have spelled the Cowboys last 25 years of existence.

Steelers @ Chiefs

17 - 31 Chiefs

Happy Trails, Big Ben! Hello, Defensive Player of the Year: T.J. Watt.

Cardinals @ Rams

27 -23 Cardinals

I don’t know who I trust less in this game. The Cardinals, who have no experience and a tendency to end the season slow and without their best player in Nuk Hopkins or the Rams and their 13-year quarterback who has never won a playoff game and rarely beats a team with a quarterback superior to him? Give me Arizona.

BL